For purposes of this post my definition of a “Synth” is a humanoid robot with at least the intellectual and emotional intelligence level of an average human.
Thank you for an insightful article. I have always enjoyed your articles. you think way ahead of others who lack the vision you have.
If as you predict Synths are coming (i am not doubting you!) much sooner than we expect or want, it is really worrisome of what is going to happen to the human relationships as we know. With the advent of cell phones, we have already lost touch with connecting to people and there is an increasing tendency to feel isolated. This will definitely accelerate the decline of human population and unintended consequences.
My belief is that virtually all political and cultural debates will center around how to handle AGI/Synths once they arrive (my best guess at the moment is mid 2030s for AGI and late 2030s/early 2040s for Synths). I do believe there will be upheaval and conflict that feels apocalyptic, and that it will take enormous "Bribes" to calm everyone down - e.g. universal basic income, guaranteed housing/shelter/food, etc. I actually think Synths will eventually fix loneliness because they can be custom designed to be the perfect companion to a specific person with a specific personality - no matter how poorly they would get along with other people. That said, it will take a while for Synths to become inexpensive enough for widespread access. Thinking about that timeline is something I've been doing and hope to have a post out on in the next couple weeks. I haven't been writing lately (or reading for that matter) because I've been buried with work, but if things slow down I hope to start posting more frequently again.
I also want to say I agree with you that there will be huge unintended consequences that are hard to predict, impossible to have so much change without them.
It is very interesting (and sadly true) that you refer to enormous 'bribes' that the govts are going to embark on to appease the masses. We may be going back in history of the romans where the emperors provided entertainment in various forms fearing revolt and threat to their rule.
I beg to have a slightly different view of whether the Synths can cure loneliness. Basically most of the humans want meaningful connections with other sentient living things, humans or animals. A robot, though it may act or behave like a real life form, is still a machine.
Internet connected smart phones promised to bring people together, keep them connected, but they have not done so. Sure, they have enhanced communication, but have they enriched the connection between us. I still enjoy sitting down with friends and having a round of beer than enjoying the back and forth with Alexa.
This is my view. I am sure there are other views more logical than my emotional POV
I love this post. Great writing Ben!
Thanks, Nick!!!
Thanks for the clarification. Great article by the way. I'm 70years young and would love to see a few of your predictions come to pass. Thanks again.
You will John!
Thank you for an insightful article. I have always enjoyed your articles. you think way ahead of others who lack the vision you have.
If as you predict Synths are coming (i am not doubting you!) much sooner than we expect or want, it is really worrisome of what is going to happen to the human relationships as we know. With the advent of cell phones, we have already lost touch with connecting to people and there is an increasing tendency to feel isolated. This will definitely accelerate the decline of human population and unintended consequences.
My belief is that virtually all political and cultural debates will center around how to handle AGI/Synths once they arrive (my best guess at the moment is mid 2030s for AGI and late 2030s/early 2040s for Synths). I do believe there will be upheaval and conflict that feels apocalyptic, and that it will take enormous "Bribes" to calm everyone down - e.g. universal basic income, guaranteed housing/shelter/food, etc. I actually think Synths will eventually fix loneliness because they can be custom designed to be the perfect companion to a specific person with a specific personality - no matter how poorly they would get along with other people. That said, it will take a while for Synths to become inexpensive enough for widespread access. Thinking about that timeline is something I've been doing and hope to have a post out on in the next couple weeks. I haven't been writing lately (or reading for that matter) because I've been buried with work, but if things slow down I hope to start posting more frequently again.
I also want to say I agree with you that there will be huge unintended consequences that are hard to predict, impossible to have so much change without them.
Always appreciate your comments Raj!
It is very interesting (and sadly true) that you refer to enormous 'bribes' that the govts are going to embark on to appease the masses. We may be going back in history of the romans where the emperors provided entertainment in various forms fearing revolt and threat to their rule.
I beg to have a slightly different view of whether the Synths can cure loneliness. Basically most of the humans want meaningful connections with other sentient living things, humans or animals. A robot, though it may act or behave like a real life form, is still a machine.
Internet connected smart phones promised to bring people together, keep them connected, but they have not done so. Sure, they have enhanced communication, but have they enriched the connection between us. I still enjoy sitting down with friends and having a round of beer than enjoying the back and forth with Alexa.
This is my view. I am sure there are other views more logical than my emotional POV
Humbly remain.
What's AGI. Thanks.
Artificial General Intelligence. Basically, AGI means human level intelligence or very near it - except the computer version :)